Banco Fomento Angola (BFA) has raised its growth forecast for Angola’s economy in 2024 to as much as 4.5%, following stronger-than-expected results in the third quarter. The revised outlook reflects robust performance in both oil and non-oil sectors. The information was revealed on January 2 in a statement.
Economic growth in the third quarter reached 5.5% year-on-year, with a quarterly increase of 2.94%, marking the 14th consecutive quarter of annual GDP expansion. According to Angola’s National Statistics Institute (INE), non-oil activities surged 6.3% compared to the same quarter in 2023, the fastest pace since late 2021.
BFA analysts noted unexpected acceleration in the oil sector, which grew faster than in the previous quarter. This, coupled with strong contributions from smaller non-oil sectors, prompted the upward revision. The oil sector is now expected to grow by 2.65%–2.9% in 2024, while non-oil activities are forecasted to expand by 4.4%–4.65%, driving overall GDP growth to 2.25%–4.5%.
Key drivers of growth in the third quarter included oil extraction and refining, trade, fishing, diamond mining, and telecommunications. These sectors contributed significantly to the quarterly GDP variation, with oil and gas accounting for 29.3% of economic activity, followed by trade (22.5%), agriculture and forestry (11.4%), and manufacturing (8.6%).
INE also highlighted notable annual growth in specific sectors: diamond and mineral extraction (36.8%), transport and storage (14.1%), fishing (11.6%), and electricity and water (7%). These gains underscore a broad-based recovery, with both oil and non-oil sectors supporting Angola’s economic expansion.