Trump’s aid freeze and tariffs would not lead to African credit downgrades, Fitch Ratings said in a recent analysis, citing low integration of most African economies to global supply chains.
African credit ratings could absorb the pressure from U.S. aid freezes and global trade tensions without widespread downgrades, it said, noting that the resilience of African economies is attributed to the region’s export composition and weaker integration into global supply chains compared to regions like Asia.
Diversified economies like Morocco with a BB+ stable outlook will not suffer the impact given very low dependence on US aid and low tariff of 10%.
Countries like Namibia, and Côte d’Ivoire are relatively shielded from the recent US decisions due to ongoing reforms and stronger economic fundamentals
Nigeria and the Seychelles hold positive credit outlooks from Fitch Ratings, indicating potential future upgrades due to ongoing reforms.
However, some of the poorest nations, such as Ethiopia, Mozambique, Uganda, and Lesotho, are at risk due to the abrupt end of U.S. aid projects, which could pressure their fiscal stability, according to the ratings agency.