Morocco’s economy is poised to maintain strong momentum in 2026, with the International Monetary Fund projecting GDP growth of 4.9% — matching the pace recorded in 2025. The forecast, released following a consultation mission conducted from January 29 to February 11 in Rabat, reflects the Fund’s confidence in the resilience of Morocco’s economic fundamentals.
Led by mission chief Laura Jaramillo, the IMF team met with senior officials from the Moroccan government, Bank Al-Maghrib, and representatives from both the public and private sectors. Growth in 2025 was driven largely by strong performance in agriculture, construction, and services, and the Fund expects these dynamics to be sustained in 2026, supported by continued public and private investment as well as a robust agricultural season following exceptionally favorable rainfall.
Inflation remained well under control in 2025, averaging just 0.8%, owing in large part to subdued food price pressures. The IMF anticipates a gradual rise toward 2% by mid-2027, driven by prior reductions in the policy rate and the strengthening growth environment.
On the fiscal front, Morocco delivered a solid performance. Tax revenues reached 24.6% of GDP in 2025, reflecting the impact of ongoing fiscal reforms and improved revenue administration. The central government deficit was contained at 3.5% of GDP, narrowing from the initial budget target of 3.8%. The IMF recommended setting aside a portion of the revenue windfall to rebuild fiscal buffers and expand investment in human capital.
The current account deficit is expected to widen modestly, driven by the high import content of increased public investment, though this is partly offset by rising tourism receipts and foreign direct investment inflows. International reserves remain adequate, and downside risks to the outlook are assessed as broadly balanced, with the main external threats identified as a potential slowdown in the eurozone and volatility in commodity prices. Bank Al-Maghrib was also encouraged to pursue its gradual transition toward greater exchange rate flexibility as it advances toward an inflation-targeting framework.