The collapse of Assad’s regime casts doubt on the Kremlin’s ability to protect its allies, and this is especially the case for Russia’s African partners who may now look for new sources of support, whether from the West, China or other emerging powers, experts say.
For Russia’s African partners, the consequences of Assad regime’s demise could be very significant. As Moscow grapples with its diminished capacity due to the Russian military being forced to leave its bases in Syria, African leaders may now perceive Russia’s military support as no longer reliable. This could ultimately lead to a shift in alliances as African countries begin to seek out alternative partners who may offer more stability. Though analysts believe that Moscow could now attempt to use its presence in Libya and Sudan as alternatives to Syria, they also point out the lack of official agreements with these countries and insufficient infrastructure make them inadequate substitutes.
According to a recent analysis by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the demise of Assad’s regime and the Kremlin’s failure to maintain is bound to damage Russia’s global image as a reliable ally. “This, in turn, threatens its influence over African autocrats that Russia seeks to support and undermines its broader geopolitical goal of positioning itself as a global superpower,” the analysis says. According to The Globe and Mail, if the collapse of Assad’s regime is perceived as an indication of an inherent unreliability of Russia’s military support, leaders in countries like Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger could begin to question their partnership with Moscow. In turn, “the psychological blow to Russia’s image as a dependable power could embolden local opposition groups and rival powers looking to undermine Russian influence in the region,” an analysis in the Firstpost concludes.