Russia’s operations in Africa and the military support that it provides to the junta-ruled Sahel states are likely to suffer from the Kremlin’s failure to prop up the Bashar Assad’s dictatorial regime in Syria, according to experts.
The Kremlin is reported to be concerned about what the future holds for its bases in Syria and elsewhere after the ousting of Bashar Assad, a Kremlin ally. Experts say that Assad’s fall also threatens the flow of Russian mercenaries, which Moscow provides to the countries in west Africa, formerly through the Wagner Group, now rebranded as Africa Corps. According to Beverly Ochieng, a security analyst at the risk consultancy Control Risks in Senegal, the prospect of losing its key naval and air bases in Syria would be devastating for Russia and its Africa Corps, which are present in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Central African Republic (CAR) and in Libya.
“Russia’s inaction in Syria has dealt a blow to confidence in its regional power,” said a recent analysis in Foreign Policy entitled ‘The Illusion of Russian Security in Africa Has Been Shattered’. It argues that Moscow’s decision not to deploy its Africa Corps mercenaries to sustain Assad’s regime highlighted Africa’s strategic importance for Putin. But the loss of its naval base in Tartus could severely hamper logistical support for Russian forces in Africa, while the failure of its “so-called Syria model of counterinsurgency may (also) undermine its soft power on the continent,” says the analysis. Against the backdrop of this crushing blow to Russia’s aspirations to great-power status, Foreign Policy asserts that “African autocracies are second-guessing Moscow’s ability to serve as their last line of defense in a moment of crisis.”