
British consultancy Oxford Economics forecasts Mozambique’s inflation to average 4.4% in 2025, aligning closely with the current year-on-year rise of 4.15% reported in June 2025.
However, the firm cautions that inflation will likely surge sharply in 2026, due to an anticipated devaluation of the metical, driven by dwindling foreign exchange reserves, rising public debt, and an overvalued currency.
The Government’s more conservative projection places 2025 inflation at approximately 7%, while analysts suggest the downward trend in oil prices and the stabilisation of supply chains following recent unrest may help keep inflation in check for now.
Despite a temporary price spike in early 2025 linked to violent social unrest, Oxford Economics expects inflationary pressures to ease in the second half of the year. Data from Mozambique’s National Statistics Institute show a steady increase in consumer prices across several sectors, notably food and non-alcoholic beverages (up 9.38%) and hospitality (up 8.53%). Nonetheless, Oxford Economics attributes the recent inflation moderation to improved economic activity and supply chain recovery, though it warns that the underlying structural vulnerabilities may trigger a renewed spike next year.