Egypt’s general government gross debt is forecast to decline steadily through 2030, reaching its lowest level since 2016, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In its latest Fiscal Monitor report released on Wednesday, October 15, the IMF projected Egypt’s debt-to-GDP ratio to fall from 90.9 percent in the 2023/2024 fiscal year to 87 percent in 2025/2026, continuing downwards to 72.5 percent by 2029/2030.
Although the figures are slightly higher than previous estimates, they align with Egypt’s Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy, which envisions a progressive reduction in the debt ratio through prudent fiscal planning and policy execution.
The IMF attributed this positive trajectory to the government’s recently launched “Narrative for Economic Development,” an initiative that outlines a new model for sustainable growth through 2030.
The strategy, led by Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, focuses on stabilising the macroeconomic environment, reducing borrowing, and stimulating domestic production. Despite these encouraging projections, the report highlighted Egypt’s rising external financing needs, expected to peak at $30.4 billion before easing to $27.5 billion, alongside an expanding financing gap projected at $8.2 billion for FY2025/2026. These pressures, the IMF warned, stem largely from regional instability and global economic headwinds.
In addition to Egypt’s fiscal outlook, the report underscored broader global debt concerns. It cautioned that worldwide public debt could surpass 100 percent of GDP by 2029, its highest level since 1948, and might surge to 123 percent in a downside scenario.
The IMF urged governments to “spend smarter, not more,” emphasising efficiency in public spending as a critical tool for driving inclusive growth. Redirecting even one percent of GDP from administrative costs to infrastructure or education, it said, could significantly boost economic output and reduce inequality. The Fund further recommended reforms in pensions, healthcare, and wage policies to sustain long-term fiscal health.
Ultimately, the IMF’s message was clear: while Egypt’s fiscal discipline is beginning to yield results, sustained reforms and efficiency-oriented governance remain essential. As global debt pressures intensify, the Fund stressed the need for nations—particularly emerging markets like Egypt—to build fiscal buffers and strengthen institutional frameworks. By prioritising transparency, accountability, and smart spending, Egypt stands poised not only to stabilise its debt but also to position itself as a resilient economy capable of weathering global and regional shocks.