On 30 March 2026, the African Development Bank (AfDB) reported that risks to Africa’s economic growth were skewed to the downside even before the outbreak of the Middle Eastern conflict involving Iran, underscoring persistent structural vulnerabilities across the continent’s economies.
According to the bank’s half-yearly economic report, Africa’s growth prospects were already being dampened by mounting public debt, shrinking foreign direct investment and reduced development assistance, which have collectively eroded fiscal space and limited investment in critical sectors such as health, education and infrastructure.
The AfDB noted that while the direct impact of the Iran conflict on Africa might be modest, its indirect effects- including higher fuel, food and fertilizer prices -are intensifying existing pressures. Projections suggest that if the conflict is resolved within three months, growth could dip by about 0.2 percentage points; if it persists for six months, the slowdown could deepen to as much as 1.5 percentage points.
Despite these headwinds, the bank maintained that growth could still reach an estimated 4.3 per cent in 2026 and 4.5 per cent in 2027, while noting that oil-exporting nations might benefit from elevated global oil prices. However, elevated debt servicing and lower investment flows continue to pose significant challenges to sustainable economic expansion across the continent.