The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a modestly improved near-term global economic outlook but warned of persistent vulnerabilities, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Presenting its *World Economic Outlook (WEO)* in Washington on 14 October 2025, the IMF said global growth would slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, signalling an uneven rebound despite resilience in major economies.
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas noted that while new policy adjustments were helping stabilise the global economy, volatility and uncertainty remained high. Growth in advanced economies is forecast to average 1.5%, while emerging markets and developing economies are expected to expand slightly above 4%, driven mainly by Asia’s resurgence.
For Sub-Saharan Africa, growth is forecast to remain flat at 4.1% in 2025, rising marginally to 4.4% in 2026—an upward revision from April but still below the October 2024 estimate. The region’s outlook masks wide disparities, with Nigeria showing improved prospects due to higher oil output, investor confidence, and limited exposure to U.S. tariffs. However, the IMF cautioned that many African economies are struggling amid weakening trade flows, uncertain aid inflows, and the expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which has dealt a significant blow to export-dependent countries such as Lesotho and Madagascar.
The IMF stressed that structural and fiscal reforms across the continent are only beginning to take hold, underscoring the need for stronger policy implementation to restore confidence and resilience. Deputy Director Petya Koeva-Brooks urged governments to rebuild fiscal buffers, maintain central bank independence, and pursue transparent, sustainable policies.
The Fund warned that failure to accelerate reforms and adapt to evolving trade and geopolitical realities could leave parts of Sub-Saharan Africa further behind, even as reform-driven economies like Nigeria demonstrate the region’s latent potential for recovery and growth.