The International Monetary Fund forecasts 3.4% overall growth for sub-Saharan Africa in 2021 after a 2020 recession of 1.9%, the first in more than a quarter century. The IMF calls for increased efforts to enable Africa to vaccinate its population.
Vaccines are one of the conditions for a return to growth. As the IMF’s Africa Department Director, Ethiopia’s Abebe Aemro Selassie, says, “Vaccine policy is also economic policy. He laments the fact that Africa has difficulty securing its vaccine supplies because of global competition.
The main risk for Africa is that new waves of epidemics will appear, making the rebound in growth uncertain. According to the IMF, in 2021, the economies of sub-Saharan Africa will rebound by 3.4%. A score that will not erase the terrible effects of the 2020 crisis. Last year, 32 million Africans fell below the extreme poverty line. And per capita income will not return to 2019 levels for several years.
Moreover, the African recovery requires financing. And the continent “cannot do it alone,” insists Abebe Aemro Selassie, who recalls that Africa will need 425 billion dollars in the next five years. This will require an effort by all, he insists: private sector, public donors and international institutions.
This is the price of sustainable growth in Africa. But the States, for their part, must strengthen their efforts in terms of good governance and the establishment of social protection systems.