South Africa’s National Treasury on Wednesday, March 18, reaffirmed that Government debt remains on track to stabilise, despite rising oil prices and global market volatility linked to tensions in the Middle East.
Director-General Duncan Pieterse noted that the broader effects of commodity price movements—particularly on trade terms and tax revenues—outweigh the direct impact of higher oil prices. He stressed that disciplined expenditure and steady or improved revenue performance would sustain the country’s fiscal trajectory.
Oil prices, now exceeding $100 per barrel, have heightened inflation concerns for oil-importing economies such as South Africa, while also placing pressure on the rand.
However, Pieterse indicated that elevated commodity prices, including coal and iron ore, could boost export earnings and increase government revenue through taxes and royalties. He further emphasised that only a significant global economic shock could derail the current fiscal outlook.
Investor sentiment, he added, remains “overwhelmingly positive” following the February budget, with stakeholders responding favourably to Treasury’s cautious revenue projections. The government expects gross debt to stabilise within the current fiscal year, with plans to introduce a formal fiscal anchor in 2026.