The World Bank on Wednesday, April 8 downgraded its 2026 economic growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa by 0.3 percentage points from its October 2025 projection, pointing to escalating geopolitical risks.
In its latest edition of the Africa Economic Update, the institution signalled that the region’s recovery from a decade marked by successive global shocks is losing momentum.
Growth is expected to remain steady at 4.1 percent, matching the 2025 rate. However, the report warns that surging costs of food, fuel and fertilizer, alongside tightening financial conditions, are likely to intensify inflationary pressures. These dynamics, it noted, will disproportionately affect vulnerable households across the region, many of whom allocate a significant portion of their income to essential commodities such as food and energy.
The World Bank further projects that inflation will climb to 4.8 percent in 2026, driven largely by spillover effects from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. It also highlighted declining external financing—particularly a reduction in development assistance—as an additional strain on low-income economies, compounding fiscal pressures and constraining recovery prospects.