The International Monetary Fund has published a detailed macroeconomic analysis of Morocco’s accelerated public infrastructure investment program, concluding that the 190 billion dirham-spending package planned for 2024-2030 could raise real GDP by approximately 3 percent above the baseline at long-term horizon, provided the investments are executed efficiently and within fiscal constraints.
The paper is among the most rigorous external assessments to date of the macroeconomic architecture of Morocco’s World Cup preparation strategy.
The investment program, equivalent to 11.9 percent of GDP over the period, covers five categories: railway network modernization at 6 percent of GDP, airport upgrades at 2.4 percent, road infrastructure at 0.9 percent, stadium construction and renovation at 2.2 percent, and urban and tourism infrastructure improvements at 0.5 percent.
The IMF’s Fiscal Monitor 2025 underpins the analysis, estimating that a one-percent-of-GDP increase in infrastructure investment can raise output by approximately 4 percent in emerging and developing economies over the long run.
The IMF’s simulations show a 2 percent GDP gain by 2030 relative to the no-investment scenario, rising to 3 percent at long-term as the productivity effects of accumulated public capital materialize. On the fiscal side, annual investment spending widens the budget deficit by an average of approximately 1.2 percent of GDP between 2024 and 2030, with public debt rising by 7 to 8 percent of GDP over the construction phase before beginning to decline as amortization begins and stronger growth improves the debt ratio.
The analysis flags two principal risk channels. The first is the import intensity of infrastructure spending: the IMF assumes that roughly 60 percent of expenditure flows to imports, meaning only 40 percent directly stimulates domestic production and attenuating the multiplier effect. The second is the crowding-out mechanism: as public borrowing increases the sovereign risk premium, real interest rates facing private firms rise during the construction phase, dampening private investment until 2030. From 2031, higher total factor productivity is projected to improve private returns and reverse this dynamic.
From 2031, once the construction phase ends, the current account deficit begins to narrow as export competitiveness improves through the productivity and real exchange rate depreciation channels. The IMF concludes that the program’s long-term growth dividends are real but conditional: successful execution requires strengthening public investment management frameworks, mitigating cost overrun risks, and integrating ongoing infrastructure maintenance costs into the fiscal framework from the outset. Prime Minister Akhannouch noted in his April parliamentary address that Morocco’s public investment rose from 230 to 380 billion dirhams between 2021 and 2026 — a 65 percent increase — confirming the scale of the mobilization already under way.