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South Africa is expected to remain a net exporter of corn during the 2024-25 marketing year, despite adverse weather conditions that have led to a reduction in the forecasted planted area to 3 million hectares, with production estimated at 16 million tonnes.
According to the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report from January 28, the season started off slowly with sporadic rainfall in October and a heatwave in November, which hindered corn planting progress. However, by mid-December, improved and sustained rainfall in key production areas started to enhance the outlook, with early plantings that were affected by the heatwaves either recovering or being replanted, though some areas faced challenges due to wet conditions.
The FAS report indicates that the 2024-25 corn plantings are later than the five-year average due to delayed rains, but weather forecasts predict La Niña conditions for the remainder of the season, which generally supports sufficient rainfall and favourable growing conditions in South Africa’s corn-producing regions. Despite the tough weather conditions, South Africa is set to maintain its position as a net exporter of corn in 2024-25, with the commercial crop expected to exceed 15 million tonnes. However, the FAS has revised its export forecast down to 1.5 million tonnes, primarily due to the lower planted area and higher local demand for animal feed, which will reduce the amount of corn available for export.
South Africa’s corn exports are anticipated to focus on neighbouring countries, where import demand has increased following the drought in the previous season. The country is not expected to import corn in 2024-25 after importing 800,000 tonnes in the 2023-24 season. Domestic stocks are expected to recover in 2024-25, with a 75% increase, reaching 1.4 million tonnes by year-end, thanks to higher local production and reduced exports. This is expected to cover about six weeks of commercial consumption.