As Tanzanians head to the polls on Wednesday, many observers see the election as less of a contest and more of a coronation for President Samia Suluhu Hassan, the country’s first female leader.
Having succeeded the late President John Magufuli in 2021, Samia initially won praise for her conciliatory style and her “Four Rs” policy of reconciliation, resilience, reform, and rebuilding, which helped mend ties with international partners and restore investor confidence.
Yet, the optimism that accompanied her rise has dimmed as reports of abductions, killings, and repression of dissent have surfaced, leading Freedom House to downgrade Tanzania from “partly free” to “not free.”
This election has been marked by the absence of strong opposition. The main opposition party, Chadema, has been barred from contesting after its leader, Tundu Lissu, was detained on treason charges, while ACT-Wazalendo’s candidate, Luhana Mpina, was disqualified twice.
Smaller parties remain in the race but have little real chance of challenging Samia or her ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), which has dominated Tanzanian politics since 1992.
Analysts warn that the exclusion of credible rivals, the control of state institutions, and widespread voter apathy undermine the credibility of the electoral process. “We already know who will win,” lamented one voter in Dar es Salaam, reflecting widespread disillusionment with the system.
Despite growing criticism, President Samia continues to command loyalty among many Tanzanians, especially women and rural voters who view her as a stabilising figure and symbol of empowerment. Her campaign promises focus on infrastructure, education, and healthcare, while her assertive tone seeks to reinforce her authority in a male-dominated political environment. Yet, allegations of internal party manipulation and influence from powerful business networks have deepened public mistrust. Analysts warn that continued suppression of dissent and youth disengagement could erode democratic norms and ignite future unrest, challenging the very stability that “Mama Samia” has sought to preserve.