The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that sub-Saharan Africa remains vulnerable to global shocks despite recording its strongest economic growth in a decade in 2025.
Launching its latest Regional Economic Outlook titled ‘’Hard-Won Gains Under Pressure” on Wednesday, May 7, in Kigali, the IMF said regional growth reached about 4.5% in 2025, driven by favourable external conditions and prudent economic policies across several major economies.
However, the IMF cautioned that external shocks, tightening financial conditions and geopolitical tensions are threatening the region’s recent economic gains. Nikola Spatafora, a senior economist in the IMF’s African Department, said sub-Saharan Africa’s resilience is now being tested, urging governments to maintain fiscal discipline, carefully manage monetary policies and rebuild economic buffers.
Yusuf Murangwa described the report as timely, saying the continent’s progress remains fragile amid a difficult global environment. He noted that although sub-Saharan Africa entered 2026 with its strongest momentum in a decade, growth levels are still inadequate to significantly improve living standards.
Murangwa said Rwanda recorded economic growth of 9.4% in 2025, among the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic, while inflation declined sharply and fiscal positions improved across much of the region. He also called for stronger private sector-led growth, warning that dependence on public spending, commodity booms and foreign aid would not be sustainable given the continent’s rapidly expanding population and workforce.
According to the IMF report, inflation eased through the end of 2025 due to lower global food and oil prices, reduced exchange rate pressures and tighter monetary policies. Nonetheless, the IMF warned that the war in the Middle East has clouded the economic outlook, pushing up oil, gas, fertilizer and shipping costs, while trade disruptions, falling tourism and possible declines in remittances could weaken economic activity.
As a result, regional growth is projected to slow slightly to 4.3% in 2026, which is 0.3 percentage points below pre-war forecasts.