The impact of climate change, without mitigation measures, may cause the Angolan economy to shrink between 3 and 6% by 2050, according to a study that assumes an increase in the average annual temperature of up to 2.5º in 2060.
The data are in the Report on Climate and Development of the Country – CCDR, a diagnostic tool that aims to explore the interaction between climate change and development in Angola and identify climate actions of great impact, presented on Wednesday at the Ministry of Economy and Planning in Luanda
Developed by the World Bank in partnership with the Angolan government, the report indicates that in a scenario without adaptation measures in Angola, and with more severe extreme events (droughts and floods) agriculture will be hit hard, with up to 7% lower agricultural productivity and overall worker productivity could be 4% lower.
Losses and damage caused by floods could reduce the value of Angola’s non-oil capital stock by 3-4 percent, according to the document to which Lusa had access.
“As a result, by 2050, the capital stock in the non-oil sector could be 4 percent lower, as assets such as roads, factories and machinery would be destroyed by floods and other extreme events,” it highlights.
In Angola, warming has accelerated significantly in recent years, with an increase of about 1.4°C in the average annual temperature since 1951, which has particularly affected southern Angola, which has suffered a severe and prolonged drought since the last decade, with conditions described as “the worst in 40 years.
As a result, last year 3.8 million people in Angola’s six southern provinces did not have enough food, and more than 1.2 million people face water shortages, with most of the country expected to be 1.5-2.5°C warmer by 2040-2060, except near the coast.
The study notes that precipitation trends are more uncertain, but variability is clearly increasing, with longer dry spells, worst droughts, and also more floods, which particularly affect the most vulnerable Angolans living in areas of high exposure to climate change.
Some of the areas with the highest number of vulnerable households, are also areas with the highest frequency of floods, such as Huambo, and droughts, such as Huíla.
“Economic and climate impacts that affect entire areas or populations, combined with high levels of vulnerability to poverty, can translate into substantial increases in the incidence and severity of poverty, food insecurity, and child malnutrition,” stresses the report, which also points out priorities for action that the government of Angola can implement in the next three to five years.