The consultancy Fitch Solutions deemed that loan in the country is expected to have grown by 5% in 2022, accelerating to 8.4% this year, but below the average growth of 11.4% over the past decade.
“We see credit rates falling during 2023, encouraging borrowing by households and businesses; at the same time, we anticipate that the slowdown in domestic public debt will reduce government intervention, giving banks more room to lend to the private sector,” write the analysts at this consultancy owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings.
In a note on the evolution of bank credit, sent to clients, according to Lusa, Fitch Solutions points out that despite the expected growth of 8.4%, “lending will remain below the historical average of 11.4% between 2012 and 2021, which is linked to the fact that the relatively high rate of non-performing loans will keep banks cautious when it comes to lending money.”
The increase in loans to customers is also related to the foreign aid from which Mozambique has benefited in recent quarters, first with the financial agreement reached with the International Monetary Fund in May, worth 456 million dollars (433.2 million euros), and then with the grant of 300 million dollars (285 million euros) from the World Bank in July last year.
According to Fitch Solutions, lending volume is expected to have increased from 266.6 billion meticals (almost 4 billion euros) in 2021 to 279.9 billion meticals (4.1 billion euros) last year, up 5%.
“In 2023, we see loan growth accelerating to 8.4%, and we anticipate that inflation will slow from an average of 9.5% in 2022 to 8.3% this year, which means that interest rates should fall in 2023, mainly because the Bank of Mozambique will continue to keep its key rate at 17.25%, encouraging a rise in borrowing by households and businesses,” the note concludes.