The Iranian Revolutionary Guards “do not stop and now they have unleashed a dangerous outbreak of hostilities against Morocco, an old friend of Israel, which has adhered to the Abraham Accords,” says Israeli and Middle East expert Ehud Yaari.
The supply of attack drones to the Polisario separatist front could put an end to the ceasefire in the Sahara and “even lead to a military confrontation between Morocco and Algeria,” says the journalist, who has interviewed several figures in the Arab-Israeli conflict, including King Hussein of Jordan, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Israeli prime ministers.
Citing information from various sources in the United States, France and Spain, Ehud Yaari says that “the Iranians intend -and may have already begun- to transfer to Algeria a large quantity of attack drones of the latest Shahad models, which are already operated by the Russians in Ukraine,” adding that several of these devices would be delivered to the polisario militias, which control the camps of Tindouf, in southwestern Algeria.
In recent years, “Morocco has gradually gained more and more international support for its autonomy initiative in the Sahara. The polisario grinds its teeth, but its leaders do not have the strength to launch attacks against Morocco,” while their Algerian mentors “fear trouble and prefer, for example, to ask the United States to try to obtain for them from the Moroccans a route to the Atlantic coast of Mauritania.
Today, “Iran is entering the scene, hoping to create a new type of threat to Morocco: turning the polisario into a military force like the militias it has diligently established in Syria, Iraq and Yemen – as in Gaza – and those it is trying to establish in Azerbaijan, Afghanistan and other corners of the world,” says Ehud Yaari.
The Iranians are apparently not the only ones: Russia is trying to obtain a naval base in Algeria, provides the Algerian army with a considerable number of weapons and “has already transferred Wagner’s mercenaries through Algeria to Mali and Burkina Faso (after the military coups)”, adds the Israeli columnist.
After the French army was driven out of the Sahel, Putin aims to penetrate further into the Sahel desert strip, adds the Israeli specialist, recalling that Israel hopes to establish relations with Sahel countries, such as Niger and Mauritania, in order to open an air route for flights through the skies of Sudan and Chad, directly to Brazil and Argentina.
In the event of suicide drone attacks against Morocco, “the situation in North Africa will change. It will take a great American effort to prevent an open confrontation between Morocco and Algeria, who have clashed in the Tindouf region in the past,” says Ehud Yaari.
For their part, the Iranians can “acquire new outposts that will increase their capacity to blackmail and threaten, and of course will allow new starting points to sow terrorism,” the Israeli journalist emphasizes.